Last week was an absolute disaster. Check that; this whole season’s been a total disaster. I can’t seem to figure out the NFL games. Nothing has been going my way, but today is different. The cool Autumn air is finally upon us, and I feel my luck will change. Especially now that I have added my big money lock of the week to the blog. So, with that said, let’s go win some money.
NFL Record: 11-28-1 (-10.4u)
Last Sundays Record: 2-7 (-3.8u)
Falcons/Lions o47 (1u)
This game was close to being my big money lock of the week, but I saved it for another game. I am in love with betting overs in Lions games. The Lions already bad secondary has been hit with the injury bug, so I’m not worried about Desmond Ridder. He might not be the best QB in the world, but the Lions defense is easy to play against. BUT… the stat I love the most is in the last 10 Lions home games, the over has hit nine times. Win, lose, or draw, the Lions know how to put on a show for their fans.
Bills -5.5 @ Washington (1u)
All week, I’ve been pondering this game. The Bills are coming off a dominant win against the Raiders in a get-right game last week. They showed the world why they are one of the best teams in the NFL. The Jets defense is just so good, and they are one of the few teams that has Josh Allen’s number. So, with the win last week, I regained my confidence in the Bills as they will show up to our nation’s capitol and put a beating on the Commanders. They will win the game by double digits.
Big Money Lock of the Week
Chargers/Vikings o54 (2.5u, boosted to +133)
Of course, for the first-ever “Big Money Lock of the Week” I was going to juice the odds and put it on an over. These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, with two of the weakest defenses in the NFL. This game has true shootout potential. I loved this game before I saw this stat, but after reading that Kirk Cousins is 28-8-1 in over games at 1:00, I loved it even more.
Patriots -2.5 @ New York (AFC) (1u)
Now, after talking about what should be the best game of the week, we go on to what should be the worst game of the week. For all the 1:00 games, this game might show up the least amount of times on RedZone. Two offenses run by bad QBs. If the total points weren’t so low for this game, I would have bet the under, but I like the Patriots spread for now. As we all know, the Jets haven’t beaten the Patriots in their last 14 matchups, and today will be no different. Year 3 Zach Wilson isn’t changing anything.
Steelers/Raiders o43 (1u)
We move straight to Sunday Night Football, and I don’t know why, but I loved the over in this game. I feel like the Steelers and the Raiders will shock people and cover this over. This pick isn’t about stats; it’s all vibes.
Now it’s time for my Parlays. I have a couple high odds parlay that I hope to hit just to win some money back on the season.
Let’s Get Crazy 7-Team Parlay +1014 (1u)
Dolphin ML
Jaguars ML
Raven ML
Packers -1
Titans +3
Chiefs ML
Cowboys ML
Same-Game Parlay +1663 (1u, boosted)
Jordan Addison Anytime TD
Keenan Allen o59.5 receiving yards
Justin Jefferson o89.5 receiving yards
Mike Williams o49.5 receiving yards
Anytime TD Parlay +1006 (1u, boosted)
Bijan Robinson Anytime TD
Tyreek Hill Anytime TD
D.K. Metcalf Anytime TD
That’s it, folks. This will be the week I get back on track, so now’s the time to join. There’s no way it can be worse than what happened last week.
SmallDog Sports 
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