It was another tumultuous week last week for your boy, but I was close to having a positive day with the units. I just got a little overzealous and kept making bets. Today, my composure will be better, and I will only be making the bets I put on this blog today (NOT). I’m actually a little hot right now. I finally won my “Big Money Pick of the Week,” and I’m coming off a fantastic college football Saturday. Now, let’s go win some money!
NFL Record: 23-51-1 (-25.90u)
Last Sundays Record: 4-6 (-0.44u)
Big Money Lock of the Week: 1-2 (-2.73u)
Prop of the Week: 1-0 (+1.5u)
Commanders/Falcons u42.5 (-112, 1u to win .89)
This is going to be a real stinky game. The Falcons have one of the worst offenses with Desmond Ridder at QB. It should be time they move on from him and put Taylor Heinicke at QB1. The Commanders should be able to hold the Falcons offense to less than 10 points. They haven’t been the best defense this season, giving up the 2nd most points per game, but I believe in the Commanders defense to live up to what most people thought about their defense. Also, the Falcons defense isn’t too shabby, as they are in the top 10 in the least amount of points given up per game.
Prop of the Week
Adam Thielen Anytime TD Scorer (+220, 1u to win 2.2)
Last week, for the Prop of the Week, I was all over the De’Von Achane and his anytime TD prop, but this week, I take it to the Dolphins opponent. Adam Thielen has been a favorite for the Panthers, having three touchdowns in the first five games. It doesn’t matter if Bryce Young or Andy Dalton is at QB. There’s a good chance Thielen is scoring a touchdown. The Panthers are going up against the Dolphins, who are 7th in points allowed. The Panthers offense might not be the best, but they should be able to score over 20 points, and Thielen will be the benefactor.
Vikings/Bears o44 (-112, 1u to win .89)
Now you might be asking, “SmallDog, why would you bet the over when the Vikings just lost the best receiver in the NFL?” and to that, I say, have you seen the Bears defense? This game will be a shootout. The Bears and Vikings offense are top 15 in points scored per game, and their defenses are top 10 in points allowed per game. Good offenses going against bad defenses. It’s a recipe for a beautiful game.
Bengals -3 V. Seahawks (-105, 1u to win .95)
I am officially back on the Bengals hype train. Joe Burrow miraculously recovered from his knee/leg injury while playing football. It’s rare, but it happened. Now granted, they did beat the Cardinals, but it was a strong performance from Burrow as he threw for 317 yards and had three touchdowns. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase were on the same page, and I see the momentum continue to build this week. If the Bengals win this game convincingly, there is a strong chance I put a Super Bowl future on the Bengals.
Big Money Lock of the Week
49ers -9.5 @ Cleveland (-115, 2.5u to win 2.17)
Don’t think, just do. The 49ers are the best team in the NFL. They are 4-1 ATS and would be 5-0 if it wasn’t for a last-second field goal against the Rams. The Rams have convincingly won all of the games, and today will be no different. The Browns are starting PJ Walker at QB. This should be the easiest game of the season for the 49ers.
Patriots +3 @ Las Vegas (-112, 1u to win .89)
I saw this game, and I hated it right away. I almost skipped it and wanted to move on. But I kept on thinking this is Bill “motherfucking” Belichick. His legacy is on the line here. In no world should he lose to that idiot Josh McDaniels again. Last year was a fluke win, and Belichick won’t let that happen again. The Patriots are winning this game, but I’m being safe and betting the spread.
Lions -3 @ Tampa Bay (-112, 1u to win .89)
It’s another game where I’m not thinking about it. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have been a fun team to watch to start the season, but the Lions are the better team. The Lion’s offense is on another level, and they will go into Tampa and get a big win.
The Play it Safe, but I have One Risky Bet Parlay (+604, boosted, 1u to win 6.04)
Dolphins Alternate Spread -6.5
Saints/Texans u42
Rams ML
Eagles ML
Bills Alternate Spread -6.5
Like I said, I’m playing it safe with most of the picks. I moved the spread for the Dolphins and Bills to at least win by a touchdown. They should easily do that against two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Rams and Eagles are going against inferior teams, so that should also be an easy win for both those teams. The risky bet is the Saints and Texans under. Last week was an anomaly for the Saints. They aren’t having a game like they did against the Patriots. The Texans have a good QB who won’t be handing the Saints the ball. Stroud will struggle against this Saints defense, but not to the extent of Mac Jones. Also, I still don’t believe in Derek Carr and his shoulder health. He didn’t need to do much last week in the Saints win.
Let’s have ourselves a week and win all the money!
SmallDog Sports 
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